Lula Wins Fourth Term as Venezuela's Machado Returns

Sam Brazil just held its presidential runoff, and the result did something no Brazilian election has done since direct voting returned. That makes it worth a few minutes of your day, and it shook markets before the country's own exchange even opened. Maya, who won, and what made the outcome so unusual?

Maya Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva won, which gives him a fourth non-consecutive term. The vote was on Sunday, October 25, 2026. The Superior Electoral Court recorded 64,256,232 valid votes for Lula, 51.79 percent, against 59,826,041 for Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, 48.21 percent. The unusual part is that Lula finished second in the first round and still won the runoff. That had never happened in the modern democratic era.

Sam Second place in round one usually sounds like a hard hole to climb out of. I'd guess the first-round gap was small, but I have no idea how small, or whether anyone had ever closed a gap like that. What did the first round look like?

Maya The first round was October 4. Flávio Bolsonaro led with 47.03 percent to Lula's 45.16 percent, a gap of roughly 2.2 million votes. Since direct presidential elections returned in 1989, no candidate had overturned a first-round deficit in the runoff. Lula did it, and his final margin was 4,430,191 votes out of 124,082,273 valid ballots.

Sam Going from trailing by about two million to winning by more than four million is a big swing. Is 51.79 to 48.21 still a close race?

Maya Both readings hold. The percentage split stayed close. Compare 2022, when Lula beat Flávio's father, Jair Bolsonaro, by about 2.1 million votes, 50.9 percent to 49.1 percent. This year's margin is wider in votes, so Lula also passed his own 2022 raw total, even though the percentages barely moved. Turnout helps explain it: about 128.2 million of more than 158 million eligible voters took part.

Sam Voting is compulsory in Brazil, as I understand it, so I'm surprised that millions of people still stayed home. Who has to vote, and how large was the group that skipped it?

Maya Voting is compulsory for most adults between 18 and 70. Abstention, meaning eligible people who did not vote, was about 19.2 percent, roughly 30.5 million people. In the first round it was about 21 percent. Brazilian outlets called the runoff figure the lowest for a presidential runoff in about 20 years, only slightly above the 18.99 percent recorded in 2006.

Sam Lula must have said something on election night with a result like that. I'm wondering what message he chose to give the country, and whether he spoke to the people who voted against him.

Maya He spoke in São Paulo that night, hoarse, and framed the win as a defense of democracy. He said voters were persuaded the ballot mattered to secure democracy in the country. He promised to change how Brazil is governed so people take part more in decisions. On unity, he said he would not use the phrase "national unity," because it does not always fit Brazil. But the country has a constitution, he said, and no one is obliged to like the elected president, who governs for everyone.

Sam Declining to say "national unity" is an odd choice for a winner addressing a divided country. Did he say anything about how he'd actually work with the other side, such as Congress, or about the online fight over the campaign?

Maya He said he would work with the Congress the public elected, including a more conservative one. He also said digital crime should be treated like crime in real life, a line aimed at large platforms he accused of trying to influence the result. Beside him, Vice President Geraldo Alckmin said Lula had saved Brazilian democracy for a second time. Lula also credited younger voters who took to the streets after the first round, and older voters who turned out despite illness and mobility problems.

Sam Lula's win speech was about democracy at home, but the campaign also had a foreign character. I keep hearing that another country's government kept coming up on the trail. Was that a real thread, and what did Lula say about it?

Maya It was a real thread. Lula repeatedly said Brazil would not be anyone's backyard, a line he used at the United Nations in September and again after the win. Reuters reported on October 20 that he accused the Bolsonaro family of subordinating itself to American interests, pointing to their meetings with Donald Trump and to US tariffs. The family denied that.

Sam Tariffs are taxes on imported goods, so I can see why they'd turn into a campaign issue. What I can't picture is how a tax on exports ended up tied to one man's court case.

Maya The Christian Science Monitor reported that a 50 percent US tariff round in 2025 was tied to the case against Jair Bolsonaro. That round was later reversed. Then a new 25 percent tariff was applied in July 2026, and Secretary of State Marco Rubio linked it to Lula. Separately, Lula's coalition asked electoral authorities to investigate alleged foreign interference, and the State Department has rejected claims that Washington was trying to tip the election.

Sam That's the foreign side. At home, Bolsonaro's camp is trying to annul the result, which sounds like the whole thing could still be undone. Is the election actually in doubt?

Maya No court had voided the result as of October 26. The certified count stands. What remains open is the explanation for Lula's gain. Pollsters are still sorting out how much came from lower abstention, from voters who backed eliminated first-round candidates, or from a late shift among Bolsonaro-leaning voters.

Sam The simplest story would be that the eliminated candidates' voters just moved over to Lula. That feels like it would cover the whole gain.

Maya The numbers don't support it. The first-round also-rans had drawn a few million votes combined. According to G1, Lula's second-round total rose by roughly 10 million from his first-round haul, which is more than those eliminated candidates had. AtlasIntel's Andrei Roman told Al Jazeera that the drop in abstention was one factor, so it's a mix.

Sam A win like that should make governing easier, but Lula said himself it would be hard. I'm wondering what stands in his way, and what the investors who rattled the markets were afraid of.

Maya Congress is more conservative than the presidency, and Lula said governing it will be hard. The markets' fear is fiscal, meaning about government spending and borrowing. Investors wanted spending restraint, and a fourth Lula term is not expected to deliver it in the form they had priced in.

Sam Before we leave the Americas, there's another headline from that same Sunday. Venezuela's opposition leader was back in the country, I gather. Who is she, and what happened?

Maya María Corina Machado reappeared inside Venezuela on Sunday, October 25, 2026, after more than 10 months abroad. She posted on X, "I'm here. With you." Her ally Edmundo González, the opposition's 2024 presidential candidate and still in exile, confirmed she was on Venezuelan soil. Her party, Vente Venezuela, released video placing her first at a church in the western state of Lara, where supporters sang the national anthem and shouted "liberty."

Sam Machado said "I'm here. With you," and that's where we left her. But the country she walked back into isn't the one she left, and Maya, I'd like to know who is running Venezuela now, and what happened to Maduro.

Maya In January 2026, US forces captured Nicolás Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, in a raid in Caracas, and both were later jailed in New York. Delcy Rodríguez, Maduro's former vice president, became interim president. Washington deals with her government directly. It has prioritized oil, order, and a negotiated transition over handing power straight to the opposition Machado leads.

Sam So the United States took out Maduro but kept working with someone from his own government. That seems an odd pairing, and I'd have guessed the opposition would be at the table too.

Maya Part of it is. Dinorah Figuera has led the opposition side of the talks, but Machado herself has not been at the main negotiating table. Figuera welcomed the homecoming as a product of that process, saying it was possible because Maduro was out and the dialogue continued. Machado says she won't obstruct the talks and is willing to negotiate with Rodríguez. She also argues the interim government tried to keep her out because it knows she can mobilize the country.

Sam Why would oil matter so much to the arrangement? I'd have thought elections would be the headline.

Maya A major energy understanding this year gave the United States access to a large share of Venezuelan crude. Trump has said it is still too soon for elections. That is why Machado's return creates a decision for Rodríguez that nobody has resolved in public.

Sam If I'm Rodríguez, I either let her organize freely or I stop her, and both look risky. Letting her speak is a big opening, and stopping her would contradict what Washington says about political freedoms.

Maya That's the bind. The interim government has already allowed some exiled politicians, activists, and journalists to return, including people close to Machado. Restricting or detaining her would test the US line on political freedoms and could complicate the oil and security deal Trump has praised. As of October 26, Reuters, AFP, the Guardian, and CNN had reported no arrest and no formal ban on her movements.

Sam Has Rodríguez said anything about it? And was there any sign of public pressure before Machado showed up?

Maya Rodríguez had not issued a detailed response in the accounts available that day, and she was not quoted welcoming or condemning the arrival. Earlier, on October 22, Venezuelans marched in several cities demanding an election date and Machado's return, the largest such street pressure in some time. The same day Rodríguez met opposition negotiators at Miraflores, the presidential palace, and dismissed anti-government groups as very small.

Sam Marchers on the street are one thing, but I can't tell how many Venezuelans would pick her over Rodríguez. Without an election, nobody can say.

Maya A poll is the nearest measure, and it is only a survey. A Japan Times account drawing on Bloomberg cited an AtlasIntel survey giving Machado a 61 percent positive rating. In a hypothetical presidential matchup she led Rodríguez 52 percent to 19 percent. Venezuela hasn't had a presidential vote both the opposition and Washington accepted since the disputed 2024 contest. Maduro's electoral authorities awarded it to Maduro, while the opposition and several governments said González won. Machado was barred from running.

Sam And how she got across the border, who cleared it, and whether Trump approved it must be settled by now, since she's standing in a church in Lara.

Maya They're not settled. Anonymous sources told Reuters one version, and Trump told reporters another. Rubio's statement credits the talks for the safety of the return without describing the logistics. Crowd sizes range from thousands to tens of thousands depending on the outlet and the stretch of road, which is normal for an uncounted motorcade. Whether she can hold rallies or travel is unknown, and Trump's comments on October 25 leaned toward treating her as a complication, even as he spoke warmly of her personally.

Sam For the whole episode, then, what's the one thing you'd want a listener to carry away? I'd like it short.

Maya Counted votes and uncounted crowds are different kinds of evidence, and both countries are now waiting on them. Brazil has a certified result and a court claim that has not voided it. Venezuela has a returned opposition leader, a poll, and no election date.

Sam That's our show for today. Thanks, Maya, and thanks to everyone listening. We'll be back with the next episode tomorrow.

Maya Thanks, Sam. One more thing for listeners: this show is AI-generated, the voices are synthetic, and the facts come from the reporting named in the closing note, whose authors are not affiliated with this show. Until tomorrow, take care and keep up.

Sam Everything today came from reporting by Reuters, AFP, the Guardian, CNN, Al Jazeera, G1, the Christian Science Monitor, and the Japan Times, which drew on Bloomberg.