Israel's Deadlocked Election and Kane's Ballon d'Or Win

Sam Israel went to the polls this week, and the morning after, nobody seemed able to say who had won. That's a strange thing for an election night, and it matters well beyond Israel. Maya, what actually happened when the votes came in, and why can't anyone call it?

Maya Israel voted on Tuesday, 27 October 2026. It was the first general election since the Hamas attacks of 7 October 2023. By Wednesday morning, neither Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu nor his main rival, Gadi Eisenkot, a former military chief, had a majority. You need 61 of the 120 seats in the Knesset, Israel's parliament, to govern, and both camps landed well short.

Sam Exit polls usually give a decent idea on the night, so I'd have assumed the television networks had it figured out. A tie in the exit polls sounds like a coin toss that nobody wants to look at too closely.

Maya Two of the three main networks, Kan 11 and Channel 13, had the blocs tied at 51 seats each. Channel 12 gave Netanyahu's bloc a 52 to 49 edge. Earlier, one AFP report had Eisenkot's bloc ahead, 53 to 50.

Sam Fine, but the real count has been running since the polls closed. Is that clearer than the exit polls, or is it just as slippery? I'm picturing a number on a screen that settles down by breakfast.

Maya It's closer to a moving snapshot. Globes reported that at 8 a.m. on Wednesday, with 51.8 percent of votes counted, Netanyahu's bloc had 56 seats, the opposition "bloc for change" had 49, and the Arab parties had 15. CNN, with a bit over half counted, put Netanyahu's bloc at 55 and the parties opposed to him at 65 combined. Different moments, slightly different numbers.

Sam That would have tripped me up. Two outlets, two sets of numbers, and both are honest. And if only about half the votes were in, the final picture could still change quite a bit by the time everything is counted.

Maya It can shift. The Times of Israel noted that "double envelope" ballots, cast by soldiers, diplomats and others who didn't vote at their assigned station, are counted last. Reuters said final results were expected on 29 or 30 October, while The National reported the official result on 4 November.

Sam Before we get to the leaders, one figure I'm curious about is how many people turned out. A deadlock feels different if almost everyone voted than if hardly anyone bothered.

Maya Turnout was 77.7 percent, according to Israel's Central Elections Committee. Globes and AFP both reported that it's the highest since 1999, and Reuters said it's about seven percentage points above 2022. That matters because Israel went through a run of inconclusive elections from 2019 to 2022, so voters have been here before.

Sam Now, Netanyahu has been in charge a long time. He must have said something when the numbers started to come in, and I'd guess he stopped short of claiming a win. Did he?

Maya He spoke after 3 a.m. at a Jerusalem convention centre and did not directly claim victory. AFP reported he called for a "strong government of the right" and said the "Jewish and Zionist majority must unite." He also said Israel has a unique opportunity with President Trump to eliminate the threat of Iran. Reuters said the deadlock could leave him as caretaker through long coalition talks, or even another election.

Sam His old coalition was big, though. Going from that to the mid-50s sounds like a heavy loss, even if he's still ahead of the other side on the night.

Maya His outgoing coalition held 68 seats at its height, per Reuters and CNN. A drop to the mid-50s, if the partial count holds, is a real loss. Likud is the largest single party, with 27 seats in the Globes snapshot.

Sam And Eisenkot is the one trying to take his job. I know he's the challenger, but I don't know who he is beyond that. What did he tell his supporters, and what's his story?

Maya Eisenkot is 66, was the army's chief of staff from 2015 to 2019, and is a political novice. He founded the centrist Yashar party in September 2025. He told supporters in Tel Aviv that the public had voted for change, and called Netanyahu a caretaker prime minister without a mandate.

Sam The Arab parties seem to be the hinge of this whole thing. I keep hearing that they did well, but I don't know how well, or whether anyone agrees on the number. What's the range, and where does it come from?

Maya The range depends on the source. AFP said exit polls put the Arab lists at 17 to 18 seats, against 10 in the current Knesset. Globes, at 51.8 percent counted, had them at 15, also up from 10. CNN's later projection had 16.

Sam Ten to somewhere around sixteen is a big jump for one election. Was there something that pushed Arab voters out in numbers this time, or was it simply the high turnout we already heard about?

Maya AFP said some Arab communities reported near-universal turnout, after campaign rhetoric from Netanyahu's far-right allies. Rahat, the Hebrew University political scientist, told AFP that Ben-Gvir's camp mobilized voters, including Arab voters voting against him.

Sam Then Mansour Abbas must be feeling strong. He leads one of those parties, I gather. What has he said about working with Eisenkot, and does Eisenkot want that help?

Maya Abbas leads Ra'am, and he told AFP the right had "suffered a major loss" and that he was open to working with Eisenkot. Eisenkot's side is less welcoming. AFP reported that during the campaign he said he would not govern with Arab lawmakers.

Sam And what about the other route, the two big Jewish blocs joining forces? That would sidestep the Arab parties entirely. Would Netanyahu's partners on the far right go along with it?

Maya They don't want it. Itamar Ben-Gvir, whose Otzma Yehudit party was on seven seats in the Globes snapshot, told AFP a unity government with Eisenkot "would be a terrible mistake." Reuters said he and Bezalel Smotrich's Religious Zionism were projected at a combined 13 seats in the exit polls, with no major gains for either. That matches the Globes partial count of seven plus six.

Sam Thirteen seats doesn't sound like much, yet they can apparently block a deal. Who actually decides which leader gets the first try at building a government, and how long do they get?

Maya President Isaac Herzog decides. His role is largely ceremonial except after elections, and the New York Times reported on 28 October that this choice is now his. CNN reported the chosen candidate gets 28 days, and likely a 14-day extension, to build a coalition. If that fails, he can ask someone else, for another four weeks.

Sam Say both attempts fail. Does the country just go straight back to the ballot box, or is there another step before that?

Maya There is one more step. The Knesset gets a short window to put forward its own candidate. Only after that does a second election come into play. Reuters noted that past negotiations have run for weeks or months, so none of this is quick.

Sam Stepping back, it feels like each side is claiming it won. Netanyahu says one thing, Eisenkot says another, and that leaves the listener wondering which of them has the stronger case.

Maya Netanyahu says the Jewish and Zionist majority must unite behind a right-wing government. Eisenkot says the public has already voted him out. Rahat's line was the most careful: even if Netanyahu lost, that did not mean Eisenkot had won.

Sam Okay, the other story. Someone won a football prize this week and the first thing I saw was people arguing about it. Before anyone tells me who got it, what is the actual headline? Who won, and what did the season look like that earned it?

Maya Harry Kane won the Ballon d'Or, the award for the world's best men's player, at a ceremony in London on 26 October. The BBC reported 61 goals in 51 matches for Bayern Munich last season, the most any Bayern player has scored in a campaign. Add England and it becomes 73 goals plus eight assists in 65 matches.

Sam Sixty-one in one club season sounds absurd, but I can't tell whether it's a Kane thing or a Bundesliga thing. If the league is just full of weak defences, the number loses some of its shine.

Maya The BBC gives a comparison. Those 61 club goals were 19 more than any other player in Europe's top five leagues. They break down as 36 in the Bundesliga, 17 clear of anyone else, 14 in the Champions League, 10 in the German Cup including a hat-trick in the 3-0 final win over Stuttgart, and one in the German Super Cup. His 12 England goals, six at the World Cup, make 73.

Sam So he was far ahead of everyone else, and yet the whole conversation is about the people who voted against him. Something about the way this prize is decided must have mattered more than the goals.

Maya He won without the trophies that usually decide it. Bayern took the German league and cup double, but Bayern and England both lost in the semi-finals, so no Champions League and no World Cup. The BBC noted it is only the fifth time in 20 years the award has gone to a player who won none of the major titles in the relevant year. Spain won the World Cup, and Lamine Yamal was a favourite. Kane beat him anyway.

Sam Then the margin must have been thin. A winner without trophies, over a World Cup champion, I'd guess it went down to the wire. Did anyone say how close it was?

Maya Vincent García, editor-in-chief of France Football, which organizes the award, told L'Équipe the race between Kane and Kylian Mbappé was incredibly close. He said the gap was smaller than the 41 points by which Rodri beat Vinícius Júnior in 2024. The exact margin had not been published as of 27 October. García also said Spanish votes split between Rodri and Yamal, which hurt the chance of a single Spanish winner.

Sam What did Kane say once he had it in his hands? I'd like to hear him rather than a panel of people arguing over him.

Maya He opened with "Wow, wow, wow!", according to Reuters, and the Guardian quoted him saying "I am almost speechless. Being here in London has made it extra special." To DAZN he said not many people would have thought it, and that a lot of times it was him against his own mind. Thomas Tuchel, England's manager, said he was delighted. The Wembley arch was lit gold that night.

Sam One thing for the road, then. Since it's two separate stories today, what is the single thing to hold on to from the Israel election, and then the single thing from Kane's win?

Maya On Israel: no one has a majority, and the Arab parties' seats, which every count puts above their current 10, plus President Herzog's choice of who goes first, decide what happens next. On Kane: he won with 73 goals for club and country, but without the big trophies, and by a margin France Football's editor called closer than 2024's 41 points.

Sam That's the show for today. This episode is AI-generated, the voices are synthetic, and the facts come from the reporting credited in a moment, whose authors have no affiliation with us. We're back with a new episode tomorrow. Thanks for listening, and Maya, thanks for joining.

Maya Thank you, Sam, it was a pleasure to walk through both stories, and I hope everyone listening comes back tomorrow for the next episode to keep up with whatever the world throws at us next.

Sam Everything today came from reporting by the BBC, Reuters, the Guardian, L'Équipe, TNT Sports, AS, Sport1, Večernji list, AFP, CNN, Globes, the Times of Israel, the New York Times and The National.